AI Predictions Disclaimer

1. What is AI-Powered Prediction?

Scoorz uses advanced artificial intelligence (Anthropic Claude) to analyze sports data and generate predictions about match outcomes. Our AI:

• Analyzes historical statistics, team form, and head-to-head records
• Considers multiple factors including home advantage, recent performance, and league position
• Generates win probabilities, predicted scores, and confidence ratings
• Provides reasoning and key factors behind each prediction

However, AI predictions are NOT magic. They are sophisticated statistical estimates based on available data, but they have important limitations.

2. AI Limitations and Uncertainties

2.1 Sports Are Inherently Unpredictable

Sports outcomes depend on countless variables that AI cannot fully account for:

• Human Factors: Player motivation, emotions, mental state, team chemistry
• Injuries: Last-minute injuries or undisclosed fitness issues
• Weather: Wind, rain, temperature affecting gameplay
• Referee Decisions: Controversial calls influencing outcomes
• Random Events: Lucky bounces, own goals, extraordinary individual performances
• Tactical Changes: Unexpected formations or strategies
• External Pressures: Media scrutiny, fan expectations, contract situations

2.2 AI Cannot Predict the Future

Our AI analyzes past data to predict future outcomes, but:

• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• Every match is unique with its own circumstances
• Underdogs can and do win (that's what makes sports exciting!)
• Historical patterns may not repeat

2.3 Data Limitations

AI predictions are only as good as the data they're based on:

• Incomplete or outdated statistics
• Lack of recent data for new teams/players
• Differences in data quality across leagues and sports
• Missing context (e.g., player transfer rumors, internal conflicts)

2.4 AI is Not Omniscient

Our AI does NOT have access to:

• Inside information from teams or players
• Private injury reports or team news
• Locker room dynamics or morale
• Prediction market movements or insider prediction patterns

3. Understanding Confidence Ratings

3.1 What Confidence Means

Each prediction includes a confidence rating (0-100%). This indicates:

• High Confidence (70-100%): Strong statistical indicators favor one outcome
• Medium Confidence (40-69%): Moderate statistical indicators; more uncertainty
• Low Confidence (0-39%): Evenly matched teams; outcome difficult to predict

3.2 High Confidence Does NOT Mean Guaranteed

CRITICAL: Even predictions with 90%+ confidence can be wrong.

• A 90% confidence prediction means approximately 10% chance of being wrong
• That 10% happens regularly in sports (upsets, surprises)
• Higher confidence does NOT eliminate risk

3.3 Low Confidence Predictions

Low confidence predictions are essentially "toss-ups":

• Both teams have similar chances of winning
• These matches are highly unpredictable
• Consider avoiding bets on low-confidence predictions

4. Understanding Win Probabilities

4.1 What Probabilities Mean

Win probabilities express likelihood as percentages:

• Home Win: 60% means if this match were played 100 times, the home team would likely win ~60 times
• Draw: 25% means ~25 times the match would end in a draw
• Away Win: 15% means ~15 times the away team would win

4.2 Probabilities Are Estimates, Not Guarantees

Probabilities are based on statistical models, but:

• The actual match is played only ONCE, not 100 times
• Anything can happen in a single game
• A 15% chance still means it WILL happen sometimes

5. Prediction Recommendations (Pro Tier)

5.1 Value Bets Are Not Guaranteed Profits

Our Pro tier provides "value bet" recommendations when our AI believes bookmaker odds are mispriced. However:

• Value bets can and do lose
• Bookmakers have sophisticated models and may know something we don't
• Value is theoretical; it doesn't guarantee profit
• Long-term value prediction may increase odds of profit, but there are NO guarantees

5.2 Expected Value (EV) Explained

Expected Value is a theoretical calculation:

• Positive EV (+$5): Theoretically, you could win $5 on average per $100 bet over many bets
• Negative EV (-$5): Theoretically, you could lose $5 on average per $100 bet

Important: EV is a long-term average. Individual bets can still lose, and variance is high in sports prediction.

5.3 Risk Assessments

Our risk ratings (Low/Medium/High) indicate potential volatility:

• Low Risk: Strong favorites with high win probability (but lower payout)
• Medium Risk: Balanced matches with moderate uncertainty
• High Risk: Underdogs or unpredictable outcomes (higher potential payout, much more likely to lose)

Remember: Even "low risk" bets can lose. There is NO such thing as a "sure bet" in sports.

6. Historical Accuracy

6.1 Accuracy Tracking

Scoorz tracks prediction accuracy over time. However:

• Past accuracy does NOT guarantee future accuracy
• Accuracy varies by sport, league, and time period
• AI models are continuously learning and improving
• Even high accuracy rates (e.g., 65%) mean many predictions will be wrong

6.2 Realistic Expectations

Industry Standard Accuracy:

• 55-60% accuracy: Very good (professional level)
• 60-65% accuracy: Excellent (top-tier forecasters)
• 65%+ accuracy: Exceptional (rare, not sustainable long-term)

Anyone claiming 80%+ accuracy is likely misleading. Sports are too unpredictable for such high accuracy rates over extended periods.

7. How to Use AI Predictions Responsibly

7.1 Treat Predictions as One Input

Use Scoorz predictions as one of many factors in your decision-making:

• Combine with your own knowledge of teams and sports
• Consider recent news, injuries, and lineup changes
• Factor in your risk tolerance and prediction strategy
• Don't blindly follow predictions

7.2 Don't Chase Predictions

Avoid these common mistakes:

• Prediction on every prediction (overexposure)
• Increasing bets after losses to "recover" (chasing)
• Assuming high-confidence predictions can't lose
• Ignoring your own judgment in favor of AI

7.3 Use for Entertainment and Learning

The best way to use Scoorz:

• Enhance your understanding of match dynamics
• Learn about statistical factors that influence outcomes
• Make watching games more engaging
• Test your own predictions against AI

8. What AI Predictions Are NOT

Scoorz AI predictions are NOT:

• ❌ Financial advice - Do not treat predictions as investment recommendations
• ❌ Guaranteed winners - Every prediction can be wrong
• ❌ Inside information - We only use publicly available data
• ❌ Prediction tips from insiders - No access to non-public information
• ❌ Infallible oracle - Sports are inherently unpredictable
• ❌ Get-rich-quick scheme - Long-term prediction profits are extremely difficult

9. No Liability for Losses

IMPORTANT:

10. Model Transparency

10.1 How Our AI Works

Scoorz uses Anthropic's Claude AI model, which:

• Analyzes structured sports data (statistics, form, head-to-head)
• Applies probabilistic reasoning based on historical patterns
• Generates natural language explanations of predictions
• Does NOT use neural networks trained specifically on prediction outcomes

10.2 Data Sources

We source sports data from API-Sports, a third-party provider. We do not control or verify the accuracy of this data.

11. Continuous Improvement

Scoorz is committed to improving AI accuracy:

• We regularly update AI models with new data
• We track prediction accuracy and analyze errors
• We incorporate user feedback to refine predictions
• We stay current with AI research and best practices

However, improvements do NOT eliminate the fundamental unpredictability of sports.

12. Questions and Feedback

If you have questions about our AI predictions: